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49:32- EVAN RYSER: If I could also ask about the SEP from June that showed rate cuts—do you expect the Fed to cut nominal rates next year while also continuing QT? CHAIR POWELL: So that, that could happen. The question is, you know, is that consistent with, with—so if you think about both of them as normalization, imagine it’s a world where things are okay, and it’s time to bring rates down from what are restrictive levels to more normal levels. Normalization, in the case of, of the balance sheet, would be to reduce QT or to continue it, depending on where you are in the cycle. So they are two independent things. And, you know, really, the active tool of monetary policy is rates. But you can imagine circumstances in which it would be appropriate to have them working in what might be seen to be just different ways. But that wouldn’t be the case. Evan Ryser:如果我也能問一下關於六月份的經濟預測報告,顯示出降息的情況——您認為Fed明年會在繼續縮表的同時降低利率嗎?
Jerome Powell:嗯,那有可能發生。問題是,您知道,這是否與......如果您將他們都視為正常化的一部分,想像一下,在一切都還好的情況下,現在是從限制性水平降息到更正常水平的時候。就像是資產負債表的正常化一樣,會根據經濟周期的不同階段來減少或繼續縮表。所以他們是兩個獨立的事情。而實際上,貨幣政策的主動工具是利率。但您可以想像在某些情況下,讓它們以可能被視為不同方式在發揮作用可能是合適的。不過這種情況不太容易發生。
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親愛的聽眾:
於8月13日的Podcast中,我們深入探討了利率倒掛(Inverted Yield Curve)是否仍然具有有效預測經濟衰退的能力。同時,節目中也介紹了美聯儲(FED)正在引入全新的貨幣政策工具,即準備金利率(Interest Rate on Reserve Balances, IORB)。 Podcast引述了瑞士銀行的看法,雖然美聯儲將政策利率目標區間的上限提高至5.5% (創下22年來的新高),然而目前的政策限制性仍然相對溫和。無論情況如何,這些政策並不足以導致經濟進入衰退。就連摩根大通都調整了其對於衰退的預測。 2020年3月26日,美國將法定存款準備金率降至0%。隨後,在2021年6月2日,美聯儲宣布取消IORR和IOER,將這些工具合併為準備金利率(IORB)。針對美聯儲政策工具的革命性改變,我們在Podcast中進行了推測,自2008年金融危機後,目前M2貨幣供給量可能會比僅僅單關注利率本身,對於股市的影響更顯著。 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20210602a.htm (2021/6/2) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IORB#0 (IORB) 最後分享一下季凡投資歷程:2019年至2023年間的變化,開始槓桿持有資產,2015年中國股災期間,美國M2貨幣供給卻上升,進行槓桿加碼持有股票。在2018年美國縮表並伴隨M2貨幣供給增加時,再次加碼(但無槓桿)持有股票。而在2022年美國縮表,但M2貨幣供給下降的情況下,增加防禦性資產。 APcore服務團隊敬上
親愛的Two Money Lovers聽眾:
非常感謝大家對我們的節目的支持!我們很高興地宣布,我們為您提供了一個特別的夏令營優惠方案。我們與2023 Ksunu' Adventure Camp合作,為您帶來了一個難得的機會。 該營隊是一個原汁原味的美國夏令營,專業的美國營隊隊輔將親自指導和照顧孩子們。現在,只要您在報名表中註明「Two Money Lovers」,您將享有一項特別優惠。 如果您在6月15日(含)之前完成報名,您將獲得2000元的「早鳥優惠」。請注意,這個優惠僅適用於註明了「Two Money Lovers」的推薦人。如果未註明,抱歉地告訴您,早鳥優惠已經截止,將無法享受該優惠。 為了讓您的孩子度過一個難忘的暑假,這個營隊將提供許多刺激和有趣的活動,並且有專業的營隊隊輔提供支持和指導。 如果您想要獲得更多關於2023 Ksunu' Adventure Camp的詳細資訊,包括活動內容、日期和報名方式,請查看以下連結: https://www.tiyea.org/2023-ksunu-adventure-camp-220303339439719208823857029151.html 再次感謝您的支持和參與!我們期待著見到您的孩子在這個精彩的夏令營中度過難忘的時光。 祝願您有一個愉快的暑假! Two Money Lovers Podcast
Dear Two Money Lovers listeners,
Thank you so much for your support of our program! We are delighted to announce that we have a special summer camp offer for you. We have partnered with the 2023 Ksunu' Adventure Camp to bring you a unique opportunity. The camp is an authentic American summer camp with professional American camp counselors who will personally guide and take care of the children. Now, by mentioning "Two Money Lovers" on your registration form, you will enjoy a special discount. If you complete your registration by June 15th (inclusive), you will receive a "Early Bird Offer" of 2000 yuan. Please note that this offer is only valid for the referrer who specifies "Two Money Lovers." If not specified, we regret to inform you that the Early Bird Offer has expired and cannot be applied. To ensure your child has an unforgettable summer, the camp will offer a variety of exciting and fun activities, with professional camp counselors providing support and guidance. If you would like to receive more information about the 2023 Ksunu' Adventure Camp, including activity details, dates, and registration process, please visit the following link: https://www.tiyea.org/2023-ksunu-adventure-camp-220303339439719208823857029151.html Once again, thank you for your support and participation! We look forward to seeing your child have an unforgettable time at this amazing summer camp. Wishing you a pleasant summer! Two Money Lovers Podcast |
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